Monte Nido, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

353
FXUS66 KLOX 132131
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
231 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/208 PM.

A gradual cooling trend is expected into early this week, then
more significant cooling will take place by late week. Night
through morning low clouds and fog can be expected, pushing into
the coastal slopes of the mountains by mid week. A cold upper
level low pressure systems is forecast to bring showers to the
area on Friday, and even a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
especially in the mountains and deserts. Dry and milder conditions
can then be expected next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...13/204 PM.

Low clouds persisted near the coast early this afternoon S of
Point Conception, and many beaches will likely only have partial
clearing. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly sunny skies with a few
hi clouds at times can be expected across SW CA thru this
afternoon. Breezy to gusty W to SW winds can be expected across
the region this afternoon into early this evening. Temps this
afternoon for the coast and vlys are expected to be near normal to
a few degrees below normal while interior areas remain several
degrees above normal. The warmest vlys and lower mtns should top
out in the mid 70s to low 80s, except lower to mid 80s in the
Antelope Vly.

It looks like upper level troffiness overall will persist over SW
CA tonight thru Tue, with H5 heights generally in the 571-574 dam
range. A 565 dam H5 low is forecast to develop about 400 miles SW
of Point Conception by early Tue evening, then track NE Tue night
into Wed morning before moving to near Point Conception by late
Wed afternoon.

The marine inversion is expected to be around 1500-1700 ft or so
for the most part tonight thru Tue, then deepen to 2500-3000 ft
Tue night into Wed morning. Overall, it looks like a marine layer
pattern will prevail across the forecast area during the period.
Night and morning low clouds and fog can be expected along the
coast and into many of the vlys, and even extending to the lower
coastal slopes Tue night into Wed morning. The low clouds will
clear back toward the coast each afternoon thru Tue with many
beaches having only partial afternoon clearing. The low clouds may
persist for many areas on Wed, even into some of the vlys. There
also should be enough of an onshore push for patchy drizzle over
the coast and vlys S of point Conception later Mon night into Tue
morning. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy skies with mainly some
mid and hi clouds at times can be expected.

Winds through Wed should be generally weak during the night and
morning hours, with breezy to gusty S to W winds in the afternoon
and early evening. However, stronger gusty SW winds should affect
portions of the L.A. County mtns and deserts on Wed thanks to a
fcst of a +10.3 mb LAX-DAG Wed pressure gradient in the afternoon.

Temps should cool down slightly for Mon, with inland areas
remaining several degrees above normal while coastal and some
adjacent vlys continue to be around or a few degrees below normal.
For Tue, further cooling from the coast to the coastal slopes
should prevail, while the interior vlys, mtns and deserts remain a
few deg above normal. By Wed, more significant cooling is
expected, with just about all areas falling to about 4 to 10 deg
below seasonal norms. Highs on Mon for the warmest vlys and lower
mtns should be in the mid to upper 70s, except lower to mid 80s in
the Antelope Vly, then fall to the lower 70s on Tue, except to
around 80 in the Antelope Vly, and to the mid to upper 60s on Wed,
except lower 70s in the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...13/206 PM.

The models are in mostly good agreement in the extended period.
On Thu, a significant and cold upper level low will move into the
northern and central Great Basin, then quickly dive S and into
southern and southeastern CA on Fri. The upper level low will move
E of the region on Sat with a broad NW to N flow aloft. H5
heights will rebound on Sun to near 573 dam with a broad NW flow
aloft.

The marine layer pattern will persist into Thu with night and
morning low clouds for the coast and vlys, possible even up to the
coastal slopes. Otherwise partly cloudy skies overall can be
expected.

For Fri, the proximity of the upper level low will bring the
slight chance to chance of showers to much of the region, mostly
in the afternoon hours. The cold air aloft (GFS fcst as low as -25
deg C at H5) will also contribute to increased instability with
the slight chance of thunderstorms introduced into the fcst for
Fri afternoon, especially over the mtns and deserts. There is
still some uncertainty on the exact track of the upper level low
and where the coldest air aloft moves to, but we should have
better confidence in this with additional model runs as we draw
closer to the middle of next week. Any leftover showers will end
Fri evening, with dry and milder conditions expected on Sat then
turning warmer on Sun with some coastal low clouds and fog in the
night and morning.

Temps are expected to cool to significantly below normal for mid-
April on Thu and Fri before turning a bit warmer on Sat and Sun,
but remaining a few deg below normal for the most part. The
warmest day overall during the extended period should be next Sun
with the warmest vlys and lower mtns reaching the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1933Z.

At 1844Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2600 ft with a temp of 14 C.

Low to moderate confidence in all TAFs, except high confidence in
desert TAFs. Cigs may struggle to clear from KSBA, KOXR, KSMO,
KLAX, and KLGB through the day, and scatter and reform frequently
before settling in for the night after 06Z. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. Cigs may drop one flight cat
lower than forecast overnight.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30-40% chc that cigs
will not scatter out this afternoon. There is a 20% chc that cigs
will arrive as early as 00Z. There is a 20% chc of LIFR cigs
tonight. Good confidence that any E wind component will remain
under 6 kt.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc that
cigs will arrive as early as 04Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...13/230 PM.

Winds have subsided below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels,
however seas may linger around/just below 10 feet across the outer
waters into this evening. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected
across all the coastal waters through Thursday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox