Monte Nido, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS66 KLOX 051759
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1059 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...04/1053 PM.

It will be a little cooler today across the coasts and lower
valleys. Today`s highs, however, will remain 10 to 12 degrees
over normal. A cooling trend will begin Monday with temperatures
back to near normal around mid week. Rain is likely sometime
between Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...05/736 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate swath of high
clouds drifting to the east-northeast. Current sounding data
indicates a surface-based marine inversion. As for winds, there
are some lingering northeasterly winds, gusting 20-25 MPH, across
the mountains and foothills.

For the immediate short term, no significant issues are expected.
With the advancing high clouds, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy across the area through the afternoon hours. Based on 12Z
TEMP STUDY numbers, today will be a few degrees cooler across the
coastal plain and lower coastal valleys. However, interior
sections will actually warm up a few degrees this afternoon. So,
in the end, most areas will be about 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year. As for winds, the lingering northeasterly
winds this morning will shift to a onshore direction as onshore
surface pressure gradients increase through the day.

Overall, current forecast has good handle for the immediate short
term. For the afternoon forecast suite, attention in the short
term will be on northerly winds and potential marine layer stratus
and on rain chances in the extended.

***From Previous Discussion***

The offshore flow this morning will be much weaker (~1 mb) and
will only produce local NE winds 15 to 25 mph. At the upper
levels...ydy`s ridge will push off to the east and will be
replaced with falling hgts and SW flow. Skies, currently, are
clear from north or Monterey to south of San Diego. There is 30 to
40 percent chc that some low clouds will develop in a weak eddy
and affect the LGB/LAX area in the morning, but its more likely
that the low clouds will hold off until Monday morning. 2 to 4 mb
of onshore flow this afternoon from both the W and S will bring 3
to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts and lower vlys, while the
warmer atmosphere will allow for 2 to 4 degrees of warming across
the mtns and far interior. Most max temps today will end up about
12 degrees above normals.

And eddy, weak cyclonic flow aloft and onshore flow will all
combine to bring a marine layer stratus deck to most of the coasts
and isolated portions of the lower vlys.

Monday will have mostly sunny skies, except for the coastal low
clouds in the morning. Stronger onshore flow and continued
falling hgts will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to the coasts
and vlys and 2 to 4 degrees over the rest of the area.

Offshore flow from the north arrives later Monday night and
Tuesday. Hi Rez mdls are forecast a dramatic retreat in the amount
of morning low clouds with only the LGB/LAX area forecast to
receive the low clouds. There, is however, a decent chc (30-40
percent) that the low cloud coverage will be more robust. A strong
W to E gradient will combine with the northerly offshore flow to
produce gusty winds in the western Antelope Vly, the I-5
corridor and the western portion of the SBA south coast. Max temps
will be very similar to Monday, except for the VTA county coast
where an enhanced sea breeze will bring noticeable 2 to 4 degrees
of cooling.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...05/1204 AM.

A ridge will be overhead on Wednesday. Hgts will be near 576 dam.
Pressure gradients will be similar to Tuesday with moderate
onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate offshore flow from
the north. Mdls continue to show limited of no marine layer
clouds, but like Tuesday there is a fair chc that there will be
some in the early morning. There will be gusty winds through the
I-5 corridor and the SBA mtns (including the Santa Ynez range).
Right now it looks like the winds will come in just under advisory
criteria.

The long range mdls are consistent with the idea of a storm in the
Thursday through Saturday time frame. There is still a great deal
of disagreement on the details of this system. Broadly, there is a
80 percent chc of rain during the three day period but only a 20
to 30 percent chc of rain during any given 6 hour period. Some
solutions bring a cold core upper low directly over the area and
this would bring an enhanced convective threat.

Most mdls and ensembles favor a rainfall total of about a half
inch of the course of the storm. Some solutions particularly the
EC`s show 1 inch amounts. This system should gradually come into
better focus over the next 48 hours.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1758Z.

At 1714Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 300 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 1500 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in all TAFs through 06/06Z. Moderate confidence
in timing of CIG arrival and heights (+/- 200 ft) for coastal
sites.

Low confidence in KOXR & KCMA with a 25% chance of LIFR CIGs
developing between 06/10-16Z. There is also 40% chance of LIFR
CIGs at KSMO through the aforementioned timeframe.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 08Z. Moderate confidence
after 06/08Z. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/-
2 hours. CIG heights could range from: 002-008. No significant
east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...05/1059 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through this afternoon. SCA level winds
will develop overnight south of Point Conception and will become
widespread by Monday afternoon to include all Outer Waters,
nearshore along the Central Coast, and the Santa Barbara Channel.

SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday.
Winds will diminish later in the week with moderate chances for
SCA winds lingering south of Point Conception on Thursday and
Friday. The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours - lower chances along the
Central Coast later in the week.

There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds Wednesday night across
the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters sometime
Thursday into the weekend bringing rainfall and the potential for
thunderstorms. Confidence is low on exact timing and details for
now.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox